If you’re only looking at your monthly or year-to-date (YTD) figures, you’re probably missing the full story—and flying blind into seasonality traps. Smart operators use 12-month rolling figures to cut through the noise, eliminate seasonal swings, and detect real trends—early.
Let’s break down what this is, why it matters, and how to use it.
What Are 12-Month Rolling Figures?
A 12-month rolling figure shows the sum of a metric over the past 12 consecutive months—updated every month. It’s a moving window.
For example:
-
“12 months ended July 2024” includes Aug 2023 to July 2024.
-
Next period: “12 months ended August 2024” = Sept 2023 to Aug 2024.
-
And so on—each month, the window shifts forward by one.
If you chart 12 of these periods in a row, say, ending July 2024 through June 2025, you’ve got a rolling 12-month trendline—comparing apples to apples.
Why Is This So Powerful?
1. No More Seasonal Whiplash
Look at your sales for February. Now look at sales in December. Big difference? Probably. But that doesn’t mean you’re growing or shrinking—it could just be seasonality.
12-month rolling figures neutralize seasonality. You’re always looking at a full-year snapshot, so short months, high seasons, or tax-time distortions get smoothed out.
2. Trends Show Up Earlier
With standard YTD or monthly reports, you might not notice a sales dip until it’s already hurting. A rolling 12-month chart gives you a clear trajectory—you can see if your business is trickling up… or quietly slipping.
That’s your early warning system.
3. Easy Visual Storytelling
Graphing these figures tells the story fast. If the line is going up, you’re growing. If it’s flat, you’re treading water. If it’s dropping—you’ve got work to do.
Business owners, investors, and CFOs all understand a clean line chart. That makes this tool great for strategic planning, investor updates, or board presentations.
What Numbers Should You Track?
Stick to the core drivers. We recommend tracking these rolling 12-month totals every single month:
-
Sales Revenue
-
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
-
Total Operating Expenses
-
Net Profit Before Taxes
These four KPIs give you a complete picture of your top line, margin pressure, overhead trends, and bottom-line performance—over time.
For example, if your sales are trickling up, but operating expenses are rising faster, your net profit line might be flat or declining. That’s a warning sign—even if top-line revenue looks strong.
What Should the Trend Look Like?
In a healthy, growing business, sales should trend up, steadily—not spiking or diving.
Ideally, your net profit line should also tick up, or at least hold steady with improving margin. If the profit line is flat while sales climb, your costs are growing too fast.
Here’s what to watch for:
-
Flat or falling sales trend: Could indicate market decline, customer churn, or sales pipeline issues.
-
Rising expenses with flat revenue: You may be outgrowing your systems or people without getting return on spend.
-
Net profit shrinking: That’s the biggest red flag—often hidden in monthly volatility but obvious on a rolling chart.
How to Set This Up
You don’t need fancy tools. A well-organized Excel sheet or accounting report export (Xero, QBO, etc.) will do. Just:
-
Export 24–36 months of monthly data.
-
Sum each 12-month block, moving one month forward each time.
-
Plot the rolling totals for each KPI.
-
Review monthly—make it a habit.
Your accounting platform or reporting tool (like Fathom) supports this natively.
Final Thought: Use It or Lose It
Running a business without 12-month rolling figures is like driving a car using only your side mirror and rearview. You’ll see what just happened—but not where you’re going.
The 12-month rolling view is the dashboard every business owner needs:
-
Clear trends
-
Early warning signs
-
No noise from seasonality
Set it up once. Review monthly. Make smarter decisions.